AAMC FL Practice Exam

Hindsight bias refers to which of the following tendencies?

1. The tendency to predict future outcomes

2. The tendency to believe that one would have foreseen an outcome after learning it

3. The tendency to favor collective decision-making

4. The tendency to overlook emotional influences on behavior

The correct answer is: The tendency to believe that one would have foreseen an outcome after learning it

Hindsight bias is the cognitive phenomenon where individuals believe that they would have predicted an outcome after they already know what that outcome is. This bias occurs after events have taken place, causing people to perceive the event as having been more predictable than it actually was before it occurred. This effect can distort memory and perception of past events, leading individuals to feel that they “knew it all along,” even if they had no actual ability to foresee the event prior to it happening. This tendency can impact decision-making and self-assessment, as individuals may inaccurately judge their predictive capabilities. It is important to be aware of hindsight bias, as it can lead to misinterpretations of one's abilities and the causes of events, as well as affect how one evaluates past decisions. Understanding this bias can help in critically evaluating decisions and learning from past experiences rather than misjudging them based on outcomes that are known after the fact.